Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Prediction markets for human capital investment

While there has been a growing literature on prediction markets, most of the markets have been confined to politics and macro-economics. These are great to have, but I would like to see markets that could help with more decisions that typical people make, such as when, and in what field to get training. The information that people have is usually about the current economy (this industry currently has a tight labor market) or employment projections by the government. What could be better would be a set of markets about future industry-specific indicators such as vacancy rates. If they were started at least 2-3 years before maturity then it could be used by people in college to help pick a major or by workers deciding whether to get training in a new field. The market might have to be "seeded" by the government, but it could be worth it.

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